Fall Survey Highlights Stress Test Fallout

James DeVuyst • December 12, 2017

OSFI’s forthcoming stress test for all uninsured mortgages after January 1 will have far-reaching effects across the mortgage industry, potentially removing up to 50,000 buyers from the real estate market each year.

That’s one of many key findings from Mortgage Professionals  Canada’s Annual State of the Residential Mortgage Market  survey, released this week by the association’s chief economist Will Dunning.

“The market is already slowing under the weight of increased interest rates, and policies aimed at suppressing the market further might be adding to economic risks,” he said.

Like in years past, this report dishes up a healthy serving of relevant and insightful industry statistics. We’ve combed them over and have included some of the most pertinent below. (Data points of special interest appear in blue.)

 **********

New OSFI Regulations

  • 18%: The percentage of prospective homebuyers  who require a mortgage and who otherwise would have had reasonable prospects of completing their desired transactions,  that are expected to fail the stress test and therefore not be able to make their anticipated purchase
  • 91%: The percentage of new mortgages, across all channels, that will be subject to some form of stress testing
  • 6.8% (or $31,000): The amount that potential homebuyers will need to reduce their target price in order to pass the stress test
    • 20%: The percentage of buyers who will have to adjust their target price by less than 2.5%
  • 40-50%: The percentage of buyers who will fail the stress test, that are expected to be unable to find an alternative for which they can qualify
  • 100,000: The number of prospective buyers who previously could have qualified for financing, who will now be disqualified
  • 50,000-60,000: The number of buyers who will still be able to make a purchase, though one that is “less attractive to them”
  • 40,000-50,000: The number of prospective buyers who will be removed from home ownership entirely
  • 50,000-100,000: The potential number of renewers each year who “may find themselves unnecessarily vulnerable” in their mortgage renewals as they will be unable to negotiate with other federally regulated lenders
    • “In some cases, these renewing borrowers may be forced to accept uncompetitive rates from their current lenders,” Dunning notes

Mortgage Types and Amortization Periods

  • 68%: Percentage of mortgage in Canada that have fixed interest rates (72% for mortgages on homes purchased during 2016 or 2017)
  • 28%: Percentage of mortgages that have variable or adjustable rates (24% for mortgages taken out in 2016/2017)
  • 4%: Percentage that are a combination of fixed and variable, known as “hybrid” mortgages
  • 86%: Percentage of mortgages with and amortization period of 25 years or less (81% for home purchased between 2014 and 2017)
  • 14%: Percentage with extended amortizations of more than 25 years (19% for recent purchases between 2014 and 2017)

Actions that Accelerate Repayment

  • ~33%: Percentage of overall mortgage holders who voluntarily take action to shorten their amortization periods (vs. 38% of recent buyers)
  • For buyers who purchased a home between 2014 and 2017:
    • 18% made a lump-sum payment (the average payment was $19,500)
    • 16% increased the amount of their payment (the average amount was $440 more a month)
    • 10% increased payment frequency

Mortgage Sources

  • 46%: Percentage of borrowers who took out a new mortgage during 2016 or 2017 who obtained the mortgage from a Canadian bank (vs. 61% of total mortgages)
  • 39%: Percentage of recent mortgages that were arranged by a mortgage broker  (vs. 27% of overall mortgages)
  • 12%: Percentage of recent borrowers who obtained their mortgage through a credit union  (vs. 8% of all mortgages)

Interest Rates

  • 2.96%: The average mortgage interest rate in Canada
    • A small drop from the 3.02% average recorded last year, though down substantially from the 3.50% average rate in 2013
  • 2.90%: The average interest rate for mortgages on homes purchased during 2017
  • 2.68%: The average rate for mortgages renewed in 2017
  • 51%: Of those who renewed in 2017, percentage who saw their interest rate drop
    • Among all borrowers who renewed in 2017, their rates dropped an average of 0.19%
  • 2.72%: The average actual rate for a 5-year fixed mortgage in 2017 , about two percentage points lower than the posted rates, which averaged 4.72%

Miscellaneous

  • 0.24% (1 in 401 borrowers): The current mortgage arrears rate in Canada (as of August 2017)
  • $1,486: The average monthly mortgage payment ($1,568 for recent purchases made from 2014 to 2017)

Equity

  • 62%: The average percentage of home equity for homeowners who have a mortgage but no HELOC
  • 58%: The average equity ratio for owners with both a mortgage and a HELOC
  • 81%: The equity ratio for those without a mortgage but with a HELOC
  • 91%: Percentage of homeowners who have 25% or more equity in their homes
  • 53%: Among recent buyers who bought their home from 2014 to 2017, the percentage with 25% or more equity in their homes

Equity Takeout

  • 9% (860,000): Percentage of homeowners who took equity out of their home in the past year
  • $54,500: The average amount of equity taken out
  • $47 billion: The total equity takeout over the past year
  • $28 billion was via mortgages and $17 billion was via HELOCs
  • Most common uses for the funds include:
    • 26% (10.7 billion): For purchases (including education)
    • 22% ($9 billion): For home renovation and repair
    • 21% ($8.7 billion): For debt consolidation and repayment
    • 21% ($8.4 billion): For investments
    • 10% ($4.2 billion): For “other” purposes
    • Equity takeout was most common among homeowners who purchased their home during 2000 to 2009

Sources of Down payments

  • 26%: The average down payment made by first-time buyers from 2014 to 2017, as a percentage of home price
    • This is a significant increase from previous surveys, where the average down payment was consistently around 20%. Dunning writes that most of these buyers appear to have increased their down payments to avoid the need for mortgage insurance
  • The top sources of these down payment funds for homes bought from 2014 to 2017 were:
    • 92%: Personal savings
    • 43%: Gifts from parents or other family members (vs. 23% from 2010-2013)
    • 19%: Loan from parents or other family members (vs. 12% from 2010-2013)
    • 27%: Loan from a financial institution
    • 29%: Withdrawal from RRSP
  • 105 weeks: The amount of working time at the average wage needed to amass a 20% down payment on an average-priced home
    • This is up from 93 weeks in 2014 and 53 weeks two decades ago

Homeownership as “Forced Saving”

  • 50%: Approximate percentage of the first mortgage payment that goes towards principal repayment (based on current rates)
    • 10 years ago this share was about 25%
    • Dunning notes that rapid repayment of principal means that, “once the mortgage loan is made, risk diminishes rapidly”
    • He added that most affordability analyses use the posted rate, “which gives a distorted impression of the current level of affordability, and of how current affordability compares to the past”

A Falling Homeownership Rate

  • 67.8%: The homeownership rate in Canada in 2016
    • Down from 69% in 2011
  • Ownership rates fell for the three youngest age groups of buyers (first-time buyers) by more than 4%
  • Dunning attributes this “disappointing” change to:
    • The increased difficulty of saving down payments
    • The elevated rate of “forced saving”
    • Five sets of mortgage insurance policy changes by the federal government that have made it more difficult to buy

Consumer Sentiment

  • 7.15: The average score (on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 indicated complete disagreement) with the following statement: “Low interest rates have meant that a lot of Canadians became homeowners over the past few years who probably should not be homeowners.” (Up from an average score of 6.98 in previous surveys)
  • 7.15: Average score in response to the statement that “real estate in Canada is a good long-term investment” (down from the previous average of 7.28)
  • 90%: The percentage of homeowners who are happy with their decision to buy a home
  • 7%: Of those who regret their decision to buy, the regret pertains to the particular property purchased
  • Just 4% regret their decision to buy in general

Consumers’ Comfort with Technology

  • 65%: Percentage of mortgage consumers who are “moderately” or “quite” comfortable with texting or instant messaging their mortgage professional with questions or concerns (77% of those aged 18-24)
  • 47%: Percentage who are moderately or quite comfortable with being served by an online digital mortgage advisor (i.e., a chatbot) when applying for a mortgage  (vs. 58% of those aged 18-24)
    • 40% are “uncomfortable” while 27% are “moderately uncomfortable”
  • 50%: Percentage who are moderately or quite comfortable with applying for a mortgage through an app on their mobile device (vs. 73% for those aged 18-24)
    • 36% are uncomfortable while 26% are moderately uncomfortable
  • Dunning notes that comfort levels are greatest for the youngest age groups, but surprisingly also among those aged 65 and older

Outlook for the Mortgage Market

  • Data on housing starts suggests housing completions in 2018 will increase slightly compared to 2017. “This factor, therefore, will tend to increase the growth rate for mortgage credit,” Dunning writes.
  • “Another significant factor is that low interest rates mean that consumers pay less for interest and, therefore, are able to pay off principal more rapidly,” he noted. “Current low interest rates have, therefore, tended to reduce the growth rate for mortgage debt.”
  • 5.9%: The current year-over-year rate of mortgage growth (as of August)
    • Vs. an average rate of 7.3% per year over the past 12 years
    • Dunning expects the  growth rate to slow to 5.6% by the end of 2017 and 5.5% for 2018

 

 

This article was written by Steve Huebl of Canadian Mortgage Trends. It was originally published here on December 8 2017.

RECENT POSTS

By James De Vuyst October 23, 2025
Fixed vs. Variable Rate Mortgages: Which One Fits Your Life? Whether you’re buying your first home, refinancing your current mortgage, or approaching renewal, one big decision stands in your way: fixed or variable rate? It’s a question many homeowners wrestle with—and the right answer depends on your goals, lifestyle, and risk tolerance. Let’s break down the key differences so you can move forward with confidence. Fixed Rate: Stability & Predictability A fixed-rate mortgage offers one major advantage: peace of mind . Your interest rate stays the same for the entire term—usually five years—regardless of what happens in the broader economy. Pros: Your monthly payment never changes during the term. Ideal if you value budgeting certainty. Shields you from rate increases. Cons: Fixed rates are usually higher than variable rates at the outset. Penalties for breaking your mortgage early can be steep , thanks to something called the Interest Rate Differential (IRD) —a complex and often costly formula used by lenders. In fact, IRD penalties have been known to reach up to 4.5% of your mortgage balance in some cases. That’s a lot to pay if you need to move, refinance, or restructure your mortgage before the end of your term. Variable Rate: Flexibility & Potential Savings With a variable-rate mortgage , your interest rate moves with the market—specifically, it adjusts based on changes to the lender’s prime rate. For example, if your mortgage is set at Prime minus 0.50% and prime is 6.00% , your rate would be 5.50% . If prime increases or decreases, your mortgage rate will change too. Pros: Typically starts out lower than a fixed rate. Penalties are simpler and smaller —usually just three months’ interest (often 2–2.5 mortgage payments). Historically, many Canadians have paid less overall interest with a variable mortgage. Cons: Your payment could increase if rates rise. Not ideal if rate fluctuations keep you up at night. The Penalty Factor: Why It Matters More Than You Think One of the biggest surprises for homeowners is the cost of breaking a mortgage early —something nearly 6 out of 10 Canadians do before their term ends. Fixed Rate = Unpredictable, potentially high penalty (IRD) Variable Rate = Predictable, usually lower penalty (3 months’ interest) Even if you don’t plan to break your mortgage, life happens—career changes, family needs, or new opportunities could shift your path. So, Which One is Best? There’s no one-size-fits-all answer. A fixed rate might be perfect for someone who wants stable budgeting and plans to stay put for years. A variable rate might work better for someone who’s financially flexible and open to market changes—or who may need to exit their mortgage early. Ultimately, the best mortgage is the one that fits your goals and your reality —not just what the bank recommends. Let's Find the Right Fit Choosing between fixed and variable isn’t just about numbers—it’s about understanding your needs, your future plans, and how much financial flexibility you want. Let’s sit down and walk through your options together. I’ll help you make an informed, confident choice—no guesswork required.
By James De Vuyst October 9, 2025
How to Use Your Mortgage to Finance Home Renovations Home renovations can be exciting—but they can also be expensive. Whether you're upgrading your kitchen, finishing the basement, or tackling a much-needed repair, the cost of materials and labour adds up quickly. If you don’t have all the cash on hand, don’t worry. There are smart ways to use mortgage financing to fund your renovation plans without derailing your financial stability. Here are three mortgage-related strategies that can help: 1. Refinancing Your Mortgage If you're already a homeowner, one of the most straightforward ways to access funds for renovations is through a mortgage refinance. This involves breaking your current mortgage and replacing it with a new one that includes the amount you need for your renovations. Key benefits: You can access up to 80% of your home’s appraised value , assuming you qualify. It may be possible to lower your interest rate or reduce your monthly payments. Timing tip: If your mortgage is up for renewal soon, refinancing at that time can help you avoid prepayment penalties. Even mid-term refinancing could make financial sense, depending on your existing rate and your renovation goals. 2. Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) If you have significant equity in your home, a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) can offer flexible funding for renovations. A HELOC is a revolving credit line secured against your home, typically at a lower interest rate than unsecured borrowing. Why consider a HELOC? You only pay interest on the amount you use. You can access funds as needed, which is ideal for staged or ongoing renovations. You maintain the terms of your existing mortgage if you don’t want to refinance. Unlike a traditional loan, a HELOC allows you to borrow, repay, and borrow again—similar to how a credit card works, but with much lower rates. 3. Purchase Plus Improvements Mortgage If you're in the market for a new home and find a property that needs some work, a "Purchase Plus Improvements" mortgage could be a great option. This allows you to include renovation costs in your initial mortgage. How it works: The renovation funds are advanced based on a quote and are held in trust until the work is complete. The renovations must add value to the property and meet lender requirements. This type of mortgage lets you start with a home that might be more affordable upfront and customize it to your taste—all while building equity from day one. Final Thoughts Your home is likely your biggest investment, and upgrading it wisely can enhance both your comfort and its value. Mortgage financing can be a powerful tool to fund renovations without tapping into high-interest debt. The right solution depends on your unique financial situation, goals, and timing. Let’s chat about your options, run the numbers, and create a plan that works for you. 📞 Ready to renovate? Connect anytime to get started!
By James De Vuyst September 25, 2025
Ready to Buy Your First Home? Here’s How to Know for Sure Buying your first home is exciting—but it’s also a major financial decision. So how can you tell if you’re truly ready to take that leap into homeownership? Whether you’re confident or still unsure, these four signs are solid indicators that you’re on the right path: 1. You’ve Got Your Down Payment and Closing Costs in Place To purchase a home in Canada, you’ll need at least 5% of the purchase price as a down payment. In addition, plan for around 1.5% to 2% of the home’s value to cover closing costs like legal fees, insurance, and adjustments. If you’ve managed to save this on your own, that’s a great sign of financial discipline. If you're receiving help from a family member through a gifted down payment , that works too—as long as the paperwork is in order. Either way, having these funds ready shows you’re prepared for the upfront costs of homeownership. 2. Your Credit Profile Tells a Good Story Lenders want to know how you manage debt. Before they approve you for a mortgage, they’ll review your credit history. What they typically like to see: At least two active credit accounts (trade lines) , like a credit card or loan Each with a minimum limit of $2,000 Open and active for at least 2 years Even if your credit isn’t perfect, don’t panic. There may still be options, such as using a co-signer or working on a credit improvement plan with a mortgage expert. 3. Your Income Can Support Homeownership—Comfortably A steady income is essential, but not all income is treated equally. If you’re full-time and past probation , you’re in a strong position. If you’re self-employed, on contract, or rely on variable income like tips or commissions, you’ll generally need a two-year history to qualify. A general rule: housing costs (mortgage, taxes, utilities) should stay under 35% of your gross monthly income . That leaves plenty of room for other living expenses, savings, and—yes—some fun too. 4. You’ve Talked to a Mortgage Professional Let’s be real—there’s a lot of info out there about buying a home. Google searches and TikToks can only take you so far. If you're serious about buying, speaking with a mortgage professional is the most effective next step. Why? Because you'll: Get pre-approved (and know what price range you're working with) Understand your loan options and the qualification process Build a game plan that suits your timeline and financial goals The Bottom Line: Being “ready” to buy a home isn’t just about how much you want it—it’s about being financially prepared, credit-ready, and backed by expert advice. If you’re thinking about homeownership, let’s chat. I’d love to help you understand your options, crunch the numbers, and build a plan that gets you confidently across the finish line—keys in hand.